Expert Picks: Travelers Championship
Expert Picks
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - JUNE 16: Harris English of the United States plays his shot from the ninth tee during the second round of the 123rd U.S. Open Championship at The Los Angeles Country Club on June 16, 2023 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Andrew Redington/Getty Images)
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Aside from the experts below, Golfbet Insider Rob Bolton breaks down the field at the Travelers Championship in this week's edition of the Power Rankings .
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2024 Shriners Children’s Open: Expert picks, PGA Tour field rankings and fantasy golf tips
The 2024 Shriners Children's Open is the PGA Tour-sanctioned event this week, and we're back with our PGA Tour field rankings and expert picks for the tournament at TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas, Nev.
Every week, we share our PGA Tour player rankings, and they are agnostic of competition. Whether you're playing in a fantasy golf leagues, betting on golf, or competing in a DFS (DraftKings, FanDuel) event, our picks highlight the top PGA Tour golfers to watch this week from our 2024 Shriners Children's Open rankings.
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2024 Shriners Children's Open Tournament preview
The Shriners Children's Open is this week, and the PGA Tour continues the FedEx Cup Fall with a long-running event in Las Vegas. Tom Kim has won here each of the last two years.
2024 Shriners Children's Open Tournament rankings: Top 10 players
1. Tom Kim: TK is the highest-ranked player in the field and the two-time defending champion, coming off an emotional Presidents Cup.
2. Beau Hossler: Hossler has been excellent throughout the year, and he's young enough that he can keep up the grind.
3. Taylor Pendrith: Pendrith was up and down at the Presidents Cup, but he was third here last year and has become a better player since.
4. Davis Thompson: Thompson hasn't missed a cut since June, and he's won in that span. Has a decent record here.
5. Cam Davis: The Aussie won this summer in unexpected fashion and finished his FedEx Cup playoffs with a T-5 finish in Colorado.
6. K.H. Lee : Lee has played TPC Summerlin pretty well, and he's cashed nicely in the last two PGA Tour events played.
7. Adam Hadwin: If you're thinking of a horse-for-course play outside of Tom Kim, Hadwin has to be your guy since he has three top-10s in the last five years.
8. Harry Hall : The Brit cashed last week in Utah coming off a successful run of higher-end DP World Tour events.
9. Tom Hoge : Tommy Tables should be in for a great week in one of his favorite events.
10. Matt NeSmith: NeSmith has been boom or bust pretty much all year, but he has a great track record in Vegas.
About the author
Ryan Ballengee
Ryan Ballengee is founder and editor of Golf News Net. He has been writing and broadcasting about golf for nearly 20 years. Ballengee lives in the Washington, D.C. area with his family. He is currently a +2.6 USGA handicap, and he has covered dozens of major championships and professional golf tournaments. He likes writing about golf and making it more accessible by answering the complex questions fans have about the pro game or who want to understand how to play golf better.
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PGA Tour Expert Picks: Quicken Loans National
Tiger woods returns to congressional where he'll try to become the first three-time champion..
More Golf: Leaderboard | Rankings | Schedule | Equipment | FedEx Cup | US Open
Oh yeah, there is an actual golf tournament this week, it won't just be a parade of Tiger Woods throughout the streets of Washington D.C.
Although, if you're the PGA Tour, the latter is not a terrible idea.
The Quicken Loans National is played in Bethesda, Md., which is also the site of Rory McIlroy's runaway US Open win in 2011 -- Congressional Country Club. The tournament has been in existence since 2007 and played at this course only five times (the other two were spent prepping it for the US Open).
Tiger Woods is a host and his foundation a beneficiary of the sponsorship from Quicken Loans. Why does that matter? He said he probably wouldn't be playing otherwise .
The tournament will take place June 26-29 and the purse is $6.5 million.
You can watch on Thursday and Friday (June 26-27) on Golf Channel from 2:30-6:30 p.m. and on Saturday and Sunday (June 28-29) on Golf Channel from 1-2:30 p.m. on CBS from 3-6 p.m. on Saturday and 3-6:30 p.m. on Sunday.
You can also watch the broadcast online at CBSSports.com from 3-6 p.m. on Saturday and Sunday.
All times Eastern
Does that mean no Tiger on TV on Thursday?
It would appear that way. Tiger tees off at 8:12 a.m. on Thursday and 1:12 p.m. on Friday, so he'll definitely be on television on Friday but you might just have to stick to soccer on Thursday.
Participants and odds
Jason Day: 12-1 Jordan Spieth: 12-1 Justin Rose: 12-1 Tiger Woods: 16-1 Brandt Snedeker: 22-1 Keegan Bradley: 25-1 Brendon Todd: 28-1 Webb Simpson: 28-1 Bill Haas: 30-1 Jason Dufner: 33-1 KJ Choi: 33-1 Hunter Mahan: 35-1
Former champions
2013 -- Bill Haas 2012 -- Tiger Woods 2011 -- Nick Watney 2010 -- Justin Rose 2009 -- Tiger Woods
Expert picks
Jordan Spieth (12-1): I'm going to pick him probably eight times this season so you're just going to have to deal with that because I'm going to be right about one of them. With Tiger's return this has turned into a big-boy tournament and we all love Spieth loves to rise to the occasion. Playing with Tiger and Jason Day in the first two rounds will buoy him for the weekend.
Lock for top 10
Brandt Snedeker (22-1): Sneds has finished T8, T16, and T5 in his last five appearances at this tournament and he's coming off a US Open in which he thoroughly contended. If he can keep his fitness up all week there's no reason he shouldn't contend for his first win of the 2013-14 season.
Roberto Castro (100-1) : Castro finished second to Haas last season and T29 the year before that. I don't love his game right now but you have to take a flyer at 100-1 odds.
For more golf news, rumors and analysis, follow @EyeOnGolf and @KylePorterCBS on Twitter or Google+ and like us on Facebook .
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Extra 4-iron means 76 for Joel Dahmen at PGA Tour's Shriners
- Associated Press
LAS VEGAS -- Joel Dahmen was penalized four shots Thursday when he discovered an extra 4-iron in his golf bag at the Shriners Children's Open, a big blow for a player who is on the bubble trying to keep his PGA Tour card.
Dahmen came into the tournament at No. 124 in the FedEx Cup. The top 125 at the end of the season keep full status for 2025.
He said he wasn't sure how it happened, but he knows the penalty for having more than 14 clubs in the bag -- two shots for every hole of the violation with a maximum of four shots in a round.
That turned his 72 into a 5-over 76, leaving him tough odds to make the cut Friday. Taylor Pendrith was in the lead at 10-under 61.
"Never happened to me before," said Dahmen, who noted that he travels with 15 or 16 clubs, like most players, depending on what he is testing.
"I played Tuesday and Wednesday out here. We didn't see it in there. It was an extra 4-iron, so I had two 4-irons in the bag."
Dahmen said he noticed it on the fourth tee when he saw a 4-iron in a different spot, and it soon dawned on him it was an extra club. He went from even par to 4 over without hitting another shot, bringing in an official to confirm what he already knew.
"You just want to get so mad and you want to get mad at everything," Dahmen said. "At the same time, just got to keep playing golf, and I didn't do a great job of that afterwards."
Wells Fargo Championship expert picks, best bets for PGA Tour golf this week
By cody williams | may 3, 2022.
Tackling the odds for the Wells Fargo Championship at TPC Potomac with our PGA Tour expert picks and best bets for the week.
Golf fans may have grown accustomed to the Wells Fargo Championship meaning a trip to Quail Hollow in Charlotte, NC, but that won’t be the case for the 2021-22 season. With the President’s Cup heading to the normal site for this tournament, the PGA Tour will take a trip to TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm, which once hosted the Quicken Loans National in the late 2010s.
So while it’s less the case than last week’s Mexico Open at a brand new venue, we are working with a limited data set as we look into the odds and make our PGA Tour expert picks. After last week, we need that little bit of data, however, to get back on track.
The only pick we hit on last week was an Aaron Wise Top 10 bet. Outside of that, we missed the mark. That just means it’s time to get back in the fold with a deeper field at a course where driving accuracy and approach play will be critical for the Par-70 track. With that, these are my PGA Tour expert picks and best bets for the Wells Fargo Championship.
Note: All odds are courtesy of WynnBet . For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided .
PGA Tour expert picks for Wells Fargo Championship: Winner, Top 10, One and Done
One and Done Pick for the Wells Fargo Championship: Tony Finau
Don’t look now, but Tony Finau is starting to trend in the right direction. After a tough start to this year, he’s now finished in the Top 35 in his last four events and capped that off with a T2 finish last week at Vidanta. Most importantly, Finau has been arguably the best approach player in the field over the last 24 rounds. His putting has been an issue still but, if he can bounce back even slightly in an area where he’s been good historically, he’ll post a strong finish at the Wells Fargo.
Top 10 pick for the Wells Fargo Championship: Corey Conners (+250)
Based on everything we know about Conners, this tournament should set up fantastic for him. He’s accurate and long off the tee and is one of the best approach players on the Tour. That’s why he’s one of BetSided’s Iain MacMillan’s picks to win this week:
"If there’s a course that fits his style of play, it’s TPC Potomac. He’s 37th in driving accuracy (not to mention sixth in strokes gained: off-the-tee), third in ball striking, 64th in approaches from 175-200 yards, 79th in scrambling, and 101st in putting, which is actually an improvement on recent years. With it being a weaker field, Conners can really take advantage and snag his second win on Tour."
I do worry about Conners’ ability to close on a win but I love getting +250 for him to finish Top 10.
Pick to Win Wells Fargo Championship: Max Homa (+4000)
Why Max Homa isn’t the +2500 range with guys like Finau, Seamus Power and Keegan Bradley. Frankly, he’s been better than those guys this season and is my pick to win, making him a two-time Wells Fargo Championship victor after capturing the crown in 2019 at Quail Hollow.
Homa has excelled in terms of his approach play this year as he’s eighth in this field over the last 40 rounds in Strokes Gained: Approach and 10th in that metric over the last 20 rounds. He’s also an above-average player in driving accuracy while also having the ability to dial it back and get more accurate when needed. His putter has been a bit cold but that has often been a blip on the radar rather than a trend with him in his career. I love for him to find the groove there and capitalize on his approach play with a win this week.
PGA Tour best bets for the Wells Fargo Championship
Iain MacMillan and I are going through our PGA Tour expert picks and best bets every week on Green on the Greens for the BetSided YouTube channel. You can check out this week’s Wells Fargo Championship picks below and watch us live every Monday at 6 p.m. ET. Also be sure to like, subscribe and share!
Rory McIlroy to finish Top 10 (+100)
On Green on the Greens, Iain called this the squarest bet he’s seen. He’s probably right, but if you’re giving me even or plus odds on Rory McIlroy to just finish in the Top 10, I’m going to take it. McIlroy has far and away been the best tee to green player in this field over any time frame you want to look at and has been playing well all season, just not winning. I do worry about the win equity and he needs to have the driver dialed in with accuracy this week. With that said, though, a Top 10 finish seems all too likely.
Brandon Wu to finish Top 20 (+325)
After essentially doing nothing but missing cuts to start his PGA Tour career after graduating from the Korn Ferry Tour last year, Wu has found his groove. He’s made his last five cuts, including three straight Top 30 finishes and a T2 showing last week in Mexico. Wu ranks seventh in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 20 rounds and has gained 1.26 strokes per round putting over that span as well. Getting him at this number to finish in the Top 20 when he’s trending so well is fantastic value.
Paul Casey to Miss the Cut
WynnBet does not have the odds for missed cuts listed as of right now, but the consensus number for Paul Casey to miss the cut is around +165. For a player who had to withdraw from the Match Play and Masters and has been recovering and rehabbing since then, his first start back could be extremely tough. Between not being healthy or being rusty, I’m taking a risk as this course should suit Casey, but do believe he’s not in a spot to show out well.
Longshot pick to win: Luke List (+10000)
From what we can gather, this doesn’t appear to be a course in which putting is going to factor too much into players succeeding. That means it’s time to look at Luke List once again.
While he’s fallen off a bit as of late, over the last 40 rounds, he ranks second in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. He’s been one of the better overall ball-strikers on the Tour in recent years and that should play well at this venue. As long as he can remain accurate with his driver and the putter doesn’t completely combust, these odds are too long to not sprinkle on.
Next. The Masters: 5 golfers who disappointed in 2022’s first major. dark
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2024 Bridges Cup: Live Leaderboard
Popular pro given rare 4-shot penalty. His response was endearing
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Joel Dahmen was penalized four shots for having 15 clubs in the bag Thursday.
As Joel Dahmen walked to the 4th tee Thursday during the first round of the Shriners Children’s Open , something didn’t look right in his golf bag.
“We got to 4 tee and I grabbed a water and I walked over to my bag and I saw a 4-iron that was in the wrong spot and our stuff is always in the right spot,” Dahmen said after his round. “It wasn’t in the right spot.”
The reason the 4-iron wasn’t in the right spot? It wasn’t supposed to be there at all.
Dahmen was penalized four shots Thursday for having 15 clubs in his bag , one more than the legal limit of 14 under the Rules of Golf. The four-shot penalty (applied as two two-shot penalties over the first two holes) turned his opening round 1-over 72 into a five-over 76 which left him in 131st place in the 132-man field as first-round play was suspended due to darkness Thursday evening (and delayed Friday morning due to high winds).
The veteran pro, who has developed a large following after being featured in the first two seasons of Netflix’s PGA Tour docuseries “Full Swing” and was open about his life and career struggles on the show , was still after the round confused how the extra 4-iron got ended up in his bag.
But nevertheless, he owned the mistake and didn’t put it off on anyone, including his caddie Geno Bonnalie.
“Never happened to me before,” he said. “I travel with 15, 16 clubs. I think most people out here do depending on conditions and courses. You know, been traveling out here for a long time and never happened before. I’d like to blame Geno. That would be the easy thing to do. It’s not his fault either. I played Tuesday and Wednesday out here. We didn’t see it in there.
“Why, I don’t know. I don’t know how it got there. It sucks.
“It’s one of those weird ones,” he added later. “I have a Clif Bar that’s probably two months old in there. Like there is probably a banana that is rotting in that golf bag. There is all sorts of crap. It’s pretty easy to typically find an extra club, and unfortunately, we didn’t do it today.”
The penalty couldn’t have come at a worse time for Dahmen either. After a career year in 2020 when he finished 38th in the FedEx Cup and then earned his first PGA Tour victory in 2021, his Official World Golf Ranking has steadily declined to 229th, his worst since 2017, his rookie year on the PGA Tour.
Bizarre confusion over 15-club rule leads to DQ of Tour pro
Coming into the week, he was 124th on the FedEx Cup Fall points list meaning he needs good finishes over the final five events of the season to secure his place among the top 125 and retain his full-time status on the PGA Tour.
As of the suspension of play, Dahmen was projected to fall another four spots to 128th.
When he realized the extra club was in his bag, he said he knew the rule but still called over a rules official to “confirm everything.”
“It’s one of those weird ones that sticks with you,” he said of the rule. “It happens maybe once a year. I remember Ian Woosnam did it way back when at the British Open when he was around the lead.
“I knew it was a max of four, but I called over a rules official just to confirm everything, handed the club off, and played with 14 the rest of the way.”
In 2001, Ian Woosnam was tied for the lead going into the final round of the Open Championship when he and his caddie discovered he had two drivers in the bag on the second tee, putting him over the 14-club limit. Part of the issue was that Royal Lytham and St. Annes , that year’s host, started with a par-3, meaning Woosnam did not look for driver in his bag until the second hole.
PGA Tour winner accepts rare 4-shot penalty with remarkably good humor
There, he was assessed just a two-shot penalty since he discovered and removed the 15th club before playing the second hole. In Vegas, Dahmen was given a four-shot penalty, the maximum allowed for breaching Rule 4.1b . The rule states, “The player gets the general penalty (two penalty strokes) for each hole where a breach happened, with a maximum of four penalty strokes in the round (adding two penalty strokes at each of the first two holes where a breach happened).
According to the rule, the breach is determined to have happened when the player became aware of the breach. Since Dahmen became aware of the breach on the 4th hole, he was given the maximum penalty.
In that moment, Dahmen said “there might have been a couple curse words,” but then he thought about the bigger picture.
“I had a lot of people out supporting me today, helping our family foundation,” he explained. “It was one of those moments where you like want to lose it and you want to get mad, be mad at yourself, be mad at Geno, be mad at the world.
. @Joel_Dahmen 's response about when he found out he had 15 clubs in his bag is worth a watch. Great perspective on why you can't lose it in that moment or any other pic.twitter.com/eVdOcL3h6f — Jack Hirsh (@JR_HIRSHey) October 18, 2024
“But you look around and people are donating a bunch of money to our foundation and life is not that bad. It’s a mistake. It’s going to happen. Unfortunately happened at this moment in time.
“But, yeah, just stripped one down the middle after that and had plenty of birdie putts; we just didn’t make them today. Yeah, one of those where you live and learn. Geno feels terrible. I feel terrible. We’ll tee it up tomorrow morning and try to make a bunch of birdies.”
Dahmen would have had his work cut out for him in Round 2. As of the Round 1 suspension of play, the cutline was sitting for the Shriners at 2 under with DataGolf projections giving a more than 60 percent chance to move to three or four under after Round 2.
Shortly before the second round was finally set to begin at 10:55 a.m. PT, Dahmen withdrew from the event.
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Jack Hirsh is the associate equipment editor at GOLF. A Pennsylvania native, Jack is a 2020 graduate of Penn State University, earning degrees in broadcast journalism and political science. He was captain of his high school golf team and recently returned to the program to serve as head coach. Jack also still *tries* to remain competitive in local amateurs. Before joining GOLF, Jack spent two years working at a TV station in Bend, Oregon, primarily as a Multimedia Journalist/reporter, but also producing, anchoring and even presenting the weather. He can be reached at [email protected] .
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Flag hunting: pga betting picks - 2024 shriners children's hospital open.
The first two events of October have come and gone, and with them, we've crowned two maiden victors at golf's highest level. The first, Kevin Yu, has been a long-time breakout candidate on the lips of many golf touts, and last week, Matt McCarty continued what is one of the hottest runs going in the sport: logging his first PGA Tour win and fourth win as a professional in a span of just three months. For us at Flag Hunting, it's been a frustrating run of collapses and poor putt luck (although I suppose that's what you sign up for when you bet Lucas Glover).
However, as we depart the Red Rocks of Utah for Sin City, we reach a venue that has been a long-time tonic for our early season troubles at FHP. Between Sungjae in 2021, and Tom Kim back-to-back years in 2022-23, we've managed to hit three consecutive outrights in the Las Vegas Desert. The tournament itself has also been known to produce some wild theatrics of its own: from a walk-off hole-in-one, to an epic final-hole collapse by one of its most accomplished champions, and win number 1 of 82 for the most electrifying athlete we've seen in the modern age. If history is any indicator, TPC Summerlin is the perfect spot to keep up the breakneck pace we've started on this fall.
This piece will serve to break down every key trend and statistic I'm weighing to project a player's viability in the outright market and set our readers up to make the crucial decisions necessary on pre-week betting boards. Without further ado, here's everything you need to know about TPC Summerlin and the 2024 Shriners Children's Hospital Open!
The Golf Course
TPC Summerlin - Par 71; 7,255 yards
Past Champions:
- 2023: Tom Kim (-20) over Adam Hadwin
- 2022: Tom Kim (-24) over Patrick Cantlay & Matthew NeSmith
- 2021: Sungjae Im (-24) over Matthew Wolff
- 2020: Martin Laird (-23) over Matthew Wolff & Austin Cook (playoff)
- 2019: Kevin Na (-23) ove Patrick Cantlay (playoff)
- 2018: Bryson DeChambeau (-21) over Patrick Cantlay
Playing at over 3,000 feet of elevation as a 7,200 yard golf course, TPC Summerlin is very much in line with the general ethos we've discussed through the first month of the Swing Season: birdie opportunities aplenty, wedge chances on virtually every hole, and a ton of money to be won and lost on the greens from inside of 15 feet.
I'll go more in detail about the metrics I'll be using to decipher this week's top names, but no 2024 Shriners handicap should be released without first discussing the potential pitfalls the weather will be throwing at the 132 players in Las Vegas.
Unlike the usual dome-like conditions we see out of this tournament on a routine basis, this year's iteration of the Shriners Children's Open is forecasted to be among the most wind-affected events we've had of the entire 2024 season. As of Tuesday evening, sustained winds as high as 26 mph (with gusts reaching 35-40) are expected all the way from Thursday afternoon through the early morning hours of Saturday.
Temperatures also project to dip into the 50s for much of Friday/Saturday as well, further adding to the subprime scoring narratives. The Vegas Strip has taken note of this: with many "winning score" lines currently being set in the mid-teens despite the winner of this event reaching the (-20) threshold every year since 2018.
Now, it'd be one thing if this weather projected to effect the entire field equally, but as is often the case with windswept golf tournaments, this week's forecast appears to favor one side of the tee sheet clearly over the other. In fact, when you pull up the early morning coverage on Thursday, you probably won't notice anything different about this years Shriners rendition compared to one's in the past. Thursday morning forecasts are as benign as you could possibly hope for: 70 degrees, sunny, and wind "gusts" clocking in at a meager 5 mph.
Once the clock turns into the PM hours, however, gusts project to surge into the 25-30 mph range, which could surely wreak havoc on any players who aren't in complete control of their games. And unfortunately for the Thursday PM wave, things are only projected to get worse as they tee it up for their second round Friday morning. According to Windfinder's latest predictions, 8 am starters could see sustained winds clocking in at upwards of 30 mph, with gusts reaching into the 50s.
These forecasts paint the picture of perhaps the most lopsided wave advantage we've seen in some time on the PGA Tour, and in my estimation, eliminates half the field from any consideration in the outright market -- at least while prices remain unadjusted. In full disclosure, every outright bet I intend to make this week are on players in the advantageous wave (Thursday AM/Friday PM), and while I don't for one second expect this weather to put TPC Summerlin in the class of a Muirfield Village or Bay Hill in terms of difficulty, but the projected conditions do call for an adjustment to my overall handicap -- and the general profile I'll be leaning on.
Let's start with driving: which in normal years is as heavily skewed towards driving accuracy as any event on Tour. With its aforementioned elevation and the generally firmer conditions of desert golf, TPC Summerlin routinely ranks inside the top five in average driving distance on Tour. It's relatively wide fairways (~35 yards on average), and lack of real rough penalty (0.31 strokes), makes it very difficult for elite drivers to separate themselves from the pack, and through the years, we've seen a collection of mediocre drivers of the ball perform well around Summerlin's benign layout.
Kevin Na won here in 2020 whilst losing 0.8 strokes off of the tee. J.T. Poston and Eric Cole each came within two shots of last years title with negative Strokes Gained: OTT ratings, and in 2021, four of the top 10 and nine of the top 20 on the final leaderboard rated out below field average in Total Driving.
I wouldn't necessarily say this weather front will completely turn the tables on our traditional dismissal of driving metrics around TPC Summerlin, but I do find myself more receptive than ever to a particular style of driver than I would be in most Shriners iterations. As cold/windy temps will likely have the most impact on distance, only a select subset of players capable of hitting the ball far enough to supersede the weather. I believe a very compelling case can be made for bombers this week -- particularly if they've proven unsusceptible to the big miss. Like last week, TPC Summerlin will not hesitate to bite back if your ball finds its way into the native desert area.
As I alluded to in the driving section, the most tangible effect of this forecasted weather will be in how far the ball travels in the air. As such, I do see a potential adjustment needed in our projected proximity ranges. Typically, TPC Summerlin ranks among the heaviest wedge courses on the PGA Tour (>42% of approach shots coming from inside of 150 yards). This week, I could easily see that number dipping down below 40% -- a number more in-line with the Tour average.
I'm therefore much more enticed by a general view on approach play this week, as the difference between short, middle, and long-irons will be much less pronounced than in past Shriners iterations. I'll still be using wedge play as a key metric, but 150-200 yard approach splits will also be included in my proximity modeling.
No matter how you divvy up the different allocations in your modeling, however, approach play should still remain king at TPC Summerlin. Top five finishers have gained an average of 37.5% of their total strokes for the week with their iron play (4.32/11.58), and none of the last four champions in Vegas have finished worse than seventh in their respective fields on approach.
As we move into the short game, I'd once again be ready to spin my typical yarn besmirching around the green play and propping up putting in a trademarked race to 20-under par. However, one thing that does become interesting in this week's handicap is TPC Summerlin's surprisingly difficult greenside surrounds.
In fact, since 2015, only Augusta National, TPC River Highlands, and Muirfield Village have ranked as more difficult annual Tour stops to gain strokes around the greens. The scrambling percentage here sits well below Tour average (55.8%), despite having some of the easiest greens to putt on inside of 15 feet, and as Viktor Hovland (lost 8.9 strokes ARG in 2022), or Emiliano Grillo (lost 7.2 combined strokes ARG in back-to-back starts from 2021-22), could tell you, these chipping areas can wreak absolute havoc on an under-developed short game.
These impediments only serve to throw more gasoline on the fire for those projected to see the worst of the wind on Thursday PM/Friday AM, as I'd expect the historic GIR % of 73.3% to take a nosedive in those conditions. For the week as a whole, however, I do think it's worth adding chipping/short game metrics into your modeling for the first time all fall.
The greens themselves at TPC Summerlin don't inspire the same level of fear as the surrounding chipping areas, actually ranking as the eighth-easiest set of green complexes to gain strokes putting. However, their straightforwardness should not undermine the historic importance of a hot putter in winning the Shriners title.
Top five finishers here have gained just under 35% of their total strokes on the greens, and four of the last five Champions in Summerlin have attained that title on the back of a top-seven putting performance in the field (each gaining a minimum of 5.5 strokes in the process).
The most similar greens agronomically to what players will face this week are actually those of last week's Black Desert Resort Championship (as most other desert courses we visit earlier in the season feature over-seeded strains of Bermudagrass as opposed to bent). I do believe there's an angle to be found in players that were particularly comfortable with the flat stick a week ago, but on the other hand, I don't see these greens being nearly nuanced enough to preclude a putter in lesser form from figuring things out.
As is usually the case in my betting process, I'd much prefer to isolate players with the ball-striking ceilings necessary to give them multiple outs to contend this week as opposed to them needing to rely strictly on an outlier putting week.
Shriners Open Betting Card
Seamus power (33-1).
𝙄𝙣𝙘𝙝𝙚𝙨 from perfection 🎯 Seamus Power gets an eagle and birdie on his last two holes to move inside the projected cutline. pic.twitter.com/4M3HtywulE — PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) October 12, 2024
Despite coming in as one of the preeminent favorites at last week's Black Desert Championship, Seamus Power's 11th-place result may come as a bit of a surprise to much of the general public. He never threatened to cash a ticket for his outright backers, but rounds of 64, 68, 65 over his final three days in Utah speaks to a player on the rise, and one very capable of racking up the birdies necessary to capture a Swing Season contest.
Power's solid result continues a run of three straight PGA Tour results of 11th or better (dating back to the opening leg of the 2024 FedEx Cup Playoffs), as well as a stretch of seven top 30 finishes in nine worldwide starts since July's U.S. Open.
By the numbers, Seamus has attained these results on the back of an all-around attack. He ranks inside the top 25 in three of the four strokes gained categories over his last 36 rounds (APP, ARG, Putting), and profiles as a top 30 driver of the ball when isolating for accuracy.
The Irishman is no stranger to conquests on shorter golf courses (and weaker fields), as his two PGA wins to date have come at Keene Trace and Port Royal Golf Club, and top-five performances in Sea Island, Bermuda, and Punta Cana speak to a player who won't be deterred by sustained winds. Coming in at 33-1, off of the third-best approach week of his season (+5.9), and a much-coveted Thursday AM tee time, Power profiles as a perfect "bounce-back" candidate after being one of last week's most popular selections.
Eric Cole (40-1)
Eric Cole nearly aces the 17th, making birdie to go 18-under atop the @ShrinersOpen leaderboard. 👏 📺: @peacock & @NBCSports app | via @PGATOUR pic.twitter.com/AP2LNlDuet — Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) October 15, 2023
Speaking of a player flying high off of a recent approach performance, you won't find many players on any week feeling as good as Eric Cole must feel with his iron play. Cole's breakout 2023 campaign already established him as one of the best up-and-coming iron players on Tour, but at no point last season was he able to do what he did in Jackson two weeks ago.
In a 16th-place result at the Sanderson Farms, Cole gained an incredible TEN strokes to the field on approach: a mark that bested the week's second-best iron player (Gary Woodland), by 2.5 shots and bested Cole's previous best approach week (2023 Fortinet), by 3.8 strokes.
It will be difficult to replicate this sort of ball-striking performance, but Cole did show 12 months ago that he's capable of pacing a field from tee-to-green at TPC Summerlin -- gaining 11.3 strokes from tee-to-green and 6.0 on approach in a third-place finish.
Had he not lost over a stroke on the greens 12 months ago, we could very well be talking about Eric Cole as a PGA Tour winner. I think the pieces are still very much in place a year later, and this 40-1 price tag doesn't nearly encapsulate the upside of a player who's logged five top-20 results in his last nine starts.
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Final 2023 Golf Betting Results: (Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller 2023 (+16.634 Units) 2022 (+67.485 Units) 2021 (+68.846 Units) 2020 (+37.015 Units) 2019 (+27.743 Units) 2018 (+55.88 Units) 2017 (+54.26 Units) Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo — Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023
Ben Griffin (50-1)
🚨👀⛳️ #59 WATCH — Ben Griffin will need to go -2 over his final two holes to shoot 59. He’s currently -10 on the day. pic.twitter.com/rlZMAs4U23 — NUCLR GOLF (@NUCLRGOLF) July 7, 2024
Anytime the argument can be made for a profile that forgoes off-the-tee reliability for elite Driving/Putting upside (a profile used by both J.T. Poston and Eric Cole in contending efforts last year), you can find me looking in the direction of Ben Griffin. He, like Power, will make the short trip from Utah on the back of an unassuming 11th-place finish at the Black Desert Championship, recording the third-best approach week of his season (+5.2), in the process.
Maybe more notably, Griffin also happened to gain strokes off of the tee for the first time since July's Scottish Open on a golf course with a similar combination of forgiving landing areas and perilous propositions to those who stray off of the beaten path. Although he came up as a bit of a Bermudagrass specialist, Griffin recorded the two best putting weeks of his entire season on bentgrass courses (TPC Deere Run & Hamilton GC), and ranks as the third-best iron player in this field over his last 36 rounds.
I know any mention of a Ben Griffin outright will receive scoffs from segments of the golf betting public, but my numbers continue to point to him as one of the premier breakout candidates in this Swing Season roster. Given his favorable draw on the tee sheet and a profile that has proven time and time again to be built for success in Summerlin, there's no way he should be priced at the 50-1s currently available on market.
Austin Eckroat (75-1)
Leader by 3. Austin Eckroat extends his lead @The_Cognizant with a birdie on No. 16. pic.twitter.com/gVj5caCSJo — PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 4, 2024
His 2024 campaign may have come to a screeching halt with a nearly dead-last, 46th-place result at the BMW Championship, but at 75-1, I feel books have gone a bridge too far in accessing Austin Eckroat's chances this week.
After all, the mere fact that Eckroat was invited into the Tour's penultimate event of its playoffs is a distinction that only eight other players in this field can claim, and before those four days in Colorado, Eckroat would have been considered one of the more in-form commodities at the back of that week's betting board.
His two prior starts in Greensboro and Memphis netted finishes of sixth and 18th for the Oklahoma State alum -- adding to an impressive calendar year as a whole that included his first Tour win, his first Major Championship top 20 (PGA), and a six-month ball-striking run that placed him among some of the finest players in the sport from a strokes gained perspective (Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama, Viktor Hovland, etc.).
With company like that, it should come as no surprise that Eckroat is one of the preeminent players in this week's field when it comes to total driving/approach play. He's one of just three players in this field to rank inside of the top 20 in SG: OTT, Fairways Gained, and Good Drive %, and sits behind only Doug Ghim and Kevin Yu when it comes to gaining strokes on approach from 150-200 yards.
Unlike those notable flushers, however, Eckroat has shown a proclivity to gain strokes in bunches on the greens. The season-long stats do admittedly leave a bit to be desired, but on five separate occasions in 2024, Eckroat has managed to gain at least 3.5 strokes on the greens. That kind of volatility is exactly what I'm looking for in an outright proposition -- especially when the ball-striking baselines are so ingrained.
In-Tournament Strategy
With these four names on the card, we're still left with ~40% of our weekly budget to use on in-tournament additions. This section will outline a few names to monitor in the live markets, as well as a few potential angles to use when assessing player viability over the course of the week.
- In general, the swing season isn’t known for placing a great number of impediments in front of the world’s best, and TPC Summerlin is no different in that regard. 14 of the 18 holes here have conceded birdies at a >15% clip, and only six holes on property have historically played over par. Of those six, only the 3rd, 8th, and 17th holes are ones I'd classify as "Bogey Avoidance Opportunities," where par would cut the average field by at least a tenth of a stroke.
- The 492-yard 3rd is far and away the most daunting: conceding a birdie or better just 11.4% of the time whilst carrying a 27.3% bogey or worse rate. It's one of the few holes on property where I'd expect players to have to hit a green in regulation with a long iron, and with a scoring average of 4.21, the 3rd is certainly a nice hole to have in your back pocket when monitoring potential live-adds.
- Breaking down the two nines individually, it's clear that the abundance of scoring opportunities at TPC Summerlin are present on its back nine. Two of the three Par 5's here (each carrying a BoB rate >40%), are on the inward half, as well as the drivable Par 4 15th that plays to a 3.6 scoring average and concedes a birdie or better at a whopping 45% rate. The back nine also features just one of the four toughest holes on the course (17), while the front nine includes four of the six toughest; including the aforementioned 3rd and 8th that play to a cumulative scoring average of 0.34 strokes over par.
- As such, I'd be very weary at buying high on players starting on the inward half of the golf course (10-18), as once they make the turn onto the 1st hole, they aren't likely to see a clear-cut birdie hole until the final hole of the front side (Par 5 9th). Instead, I'd be focusing a lot more of my attention on players starting on the more difficult side. The two nines play nearly a shot apart relative to par (-0.34 vs -1.33), so if you can find a player making the turn onto the back-nine at (-1) or (-2), they could provide a decent value proposition versus some of the hotter starters working their way from 10-18.
With this said, here are a few Thursday AM starters that my numbers liked, and could present a value opportunity in Round 1:
- Charley Hoffman (10:17 am)
- Rico Hoey (10:17 am)
- Taylor Pendrith (10:28 am)*
- Lee Hodges (10:39 am)
- Jhonattan Vegas (10:39 am)*
- J.T. Poston (10:39 am)*
- Daniel Berger (10:50 am)
(*) indicates a player going off of the back-nine
Best of luck, guys, and happy hunting!
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PrizePicks NFL DFS Prop Picks - Over/Under Props for Week 7 (Sunday Main Slate)
Hello everybody, and welcome to our PrizePicks NFL DFS prop picks for Week 7 - Sunday Main Slate! The 2024 NFL season is underway, and that means our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great DFS plays we can look to take advantage of. Our partners at PrizePicks offer some of the best […]
Week 7 NFL DFS Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - Early Slate (2024): Jordan Love, Bijan Robinson, Justin Jefferson, David Njoku, and more
There are seven games on this week’s early slate, highlighted by the Houston Texans visiting the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions heading to Minnesota to face the surprising Vikings. This week, a lot of ownership will center around those games, giving opportunities to jump the field in tournaments by getting contrarian with other […]
Free Week 7 NFL Betting Picks and Expert Predictions
We finally had our first 2-0 week of the season in Week 6. The Lions did their part against the fraudulent Cowboys, and the Packers took care of business at home against the Cardinals. Feels good to be back in the win column. Week 7 offers us another opportunity to keep the good vibes going. […]
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Dominion Energy Charity Classic
The Country Club of Virginia
Richmond, Virginia • USA
Oct 18 - 20, 2024
Y.E. Yang makes birdie on No. 18 at Dominion
Steven alker makes bounce-back birdie on no. 17 at dominion.
Ricardo Gonzalez ends day with birdie at Dominion
K.J. Choi makes a birdie putt on No. 16 at Dominion
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Rocco Mediate brushes in a birdie putt to end his day at Dominion
Padraig Harrington makes putt for birdie at Dominion
Recent news view all.
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The FedExCup Fall continues an evolution for PGA TOUR Expert Picks. For the eight fall events, fans of PGA TOUR betting can now see tips and picks for specific markets from Golfbet contributors.
Expert Picks. This is the first season of a new evolution for PGA TOUR Expert Picks. Fans of PGA TOUR betting can now see tips and picks for specific markets that the Golfbet team will be riding ...
Ben Kohles (+10000) … All non-winners on the PGA TOUR need not turn back the clock any further than the last two weeks for inspiration as both Kevin Yu (Sanderson Farms Championship) and Matt ...
How it works: Each week, our experts from PGATOUR.COM will make their selections in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf. Each lineup consists of four starters and two bench p Leaderboard Watch News FedExCup Schedule Players Stats Golfbet Signature Events More PGA TOUR PGA TOUR Champions Korn Ferry Tour PGA TOUR Canada PGA TOUR Latinoamérica LPGA TOUR DP ...
The PGA Tour's FedEx Cup Fall rolls on in Las Vegas for the 2024 Shriners Children's Open at TPC Summerlin. Back-to-back defending champion Tom Kim — the Korean hasn't played a Tour event since the FedEx St. Jude Championship in August — highlights the field as he looks for a turkey. ... Shriners Children's Open picks to win Beau ...
PGA Tour Expert Picks: Quicken Loans National Kyle Porter 2 min read 2024 Presidents Cup predictions, expert picks
The 2024 Shriners Children's Open is the PGA Tour-sanctioned event this week, and we're back with our PGA Tour field rankings and expert picks for the tournament at TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas, Nev.
Scheffler was selling picks at steep prices of 6-to-1 to win the 2024 Bay Hill Invitational, and we were quick to warn beginning golf bettors away from making those picks on a gambling favorite against a smallish, but star-studded field. ... Finding the Best PGA Tour Picks Every Golf Season. In these uncertain times, the consumer has every ...
WILL GRAY (Lead, Fantasy & Betting) Winner: Scottie Scheffler (+400) - It's not sexy, but I've spent too much time trying to rationalize a pick on someone else. At the end of the day ...
SportsLine's proven model simulated the Shriners Children's Open 2024 10,000 times and revealed its surprising PGA Tour golf picks. ... Kim, a three-time winner on the PGA Tour, is the back-to ...
The tournament will take place June 26-29 and the purse is $6.5 million. You can watch on Thursday and Friday (June 26-27) on Golf Channel from 2:30-6:30 p.m. and on Saturday and Sunday (June 28 ...
With such a large field size in every PGA Tour event, our Golf Picks will typically consist of our main Outright Golf Pick as well as 2 or 3 longshot picks. We also offer select 2-ball and 3-ball picks as well as other Golf Prop Bets such as Top Rest Of The World, Top American or Top European. Our picks will also be accompanied by full analysis ...
That turned his 72 into a 5-over 76, leaving him tough odds to make the cut Friday. Taylor Pendrith was in the lead at 10-under 61. "Never happened to me before," said Dahmen, who noted that he ...
PGA Tour best bets for the Wells Fargo Championship. Iain MacMillan and I are going through our PGA Tour expert picks and best bets every week on Green on the Greens for the BetSided YouTube ...
Golf Predictions. We run thousands of simulations for every PGA Tour event and major golf championship to predict the most likely outcomes and detect value against the sportsbooks. Get the latest golf picks and PGA picks this week here. PGA Tour.
Top 10: Patrick Cantlay (+350) - Our Golfbet "Key Stats" model says the top of the leaderboard will be filled with players who have been in good recent form and sneakily in contention at a ...
Free golf picks and betting predictions for PGA, LIV and pro tours. ... Checking out our top Masters picks and predictions based on the best PGA Tour betting odds at the conclusion of the first ...
PGA Tour winner accepts rare 4-shot penalty with remarkably good humor By: Alan Bastable There, he was assessed just a two-shot penalty since he discovered and removed the 15th club before playing ...
Ian McNeill's free PGA betting picks. Ian provides analysis and an introductory guide to golf live betting on the PGA Tour by making selections both before and during the 2024 Shriners Children's ...
Expert Picks: 3M Open. With a new season comes a new evolution for PGA TOUR Expert Picks. Fans of PGA TOUR betting can now see tips and picks for specific markets that the Golfbet team will be ...
Providing the only Real-Time Live Scoring for the PGA TOUR, Champions Tour and Korn Ferry Tour. Home of official PGA TOUR ... Quick Links. RSM Birdies Fore Love. PGA TOUR LIVE. Payne Stewart Award ...
Pga Tour Quick Picks. Join group. About this group. Private. Only members can see who's in the group and what they post. Visible. Anyone can find this group. History. Group created on June 20, 2023. Name last changed on June 20, 2023. See more.
Will Gray. -17.45u. -15u. -3u. -4.45u. Golfbet experts longshot: 0-15. For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER today. With a new season comes a new evolution for ...
The PGA TOUR Experts league is once again open to the public. You can play our free fantasy game and see how you measure up against our experts below. Joining the league is simple. Just click here ...
PGA TOUR Tournament Highlights 2024 Shriners Children's Open, Las Vegas - Golf Scores and Results
PGA TOUR FedExCup Fall 2024 Shriners Children's Open, Las Vegas - Golf Scores and Results. ... Quick Links. RSM Birdies Fore Love. PGA TOUR LIVE. Payne Stewart Award. Fan Council. Newsletters.
PGA TOUR Champions Tournament Highlights 2024 Dominion Energy Charity Classic, Richmond - Golf Scores and Results